My predictions for 2008 were very hit and miss (mainly miss), here’s a quick re-cap:

• Cubic Telecom will have a £100m exit
  • Not yet. 2008 was an amazing year for Pat and the team with deals happening at breakneck pace.
• European Founders, Howzat Media, TAG or Advent will do a deal with a web or mobile start-up here
  • Again not yet. I still think this will happen
• More foreign VCs will invest in Irish web start-ups than Irish VCs
  • Well they both hover around zero. With current climate, we could be waiting a long time for this.
• One of the current batch of Irish Web 2.0 start-ups will go global in a big way
  • PollDaddy!
• EI’s €170m VC fund will continue to provide minimal benefits to Irish web start-ups
  • I got that one 1000% correct
• Eircom’s small fund will result in two major web start-up successes
  • Sadly not yet but the signs are still good
• Someone will launch a full Y Combinator/Seedcamp here
  • Sadly no. And with Government pissing away another €500m to foreign VCs this time, could they not take a €5m flutter with some smart entrepreneurs (no not VCs!) co-managing this?
• Minister John McGuinness will be given responsibility for re-structuring all state bodies concerned with business
  • Again no. Will Government have the balls to shake everything up in 2009? €500m to foreign VCs says no.
• EI will absorb Údarás na Gaeltachta
  • No.
• EI will launch a self-contained web unit with its own budget, minimal red-tape, firewall access to Facebook and based in the Cork Gaeltacht or Kilkenny
  • No, big opportunity missed. The geo-centric model of EI needs to change to centres of expertise.
• Damien Mulley will launch his own start-up
  • Mulley Communications
• Six Apart will launch a free version of Typepad
  • No. Give it time tho.
• Six Apart or Automattic will launch a full blown social network built on their blogging platforms
  • No. I’m very surprised how long this is taking.
• Facebook Sign-to-Noise will continue to plummet as more and more people join and repeat usage plateaus (How many FB apps did I have to install this week just to read happy new year messages?)
  • SNR did plummet but usage didn’t. I started to find FB more useful in the latter part of 2008 as all the vampire crap subsided.
• There will be a management bloodbath at a high level in the mobile operators as they see ARPU drop on traditional services and continue to sit idly-by, unable to make sense of the mobile internet
  • No. Bit by bit it looks like the mobile telcos are getting the hang of the internet. 
• Google’s Mobile strategy will continue to peek out here and there and continue scare the bejesus out of the incumbents
  • The strategy seems to be working well. The ones who are scared are not the telcos but Nokia and the non-Android handset makers. It looks like the mobile telcos are actually embracing Android.
• The first Google Android phone will be launched by HTC and won’t be fantastic
  • I got this one right. I have a G1. The software is fantastic, the hardware mediocre. Review coming soon on LouderVoice.
• Amazon will merge with eBay
  • No. They still should
• Amazon will seriously impact Apple iTunes
  • I believe they are making a bigger and bigger dent here. Android will accelerate this.
• Google will buy 3 (ok ok that’s wishlist too)
  • No, not even close.
• RyanAir will buy 3 
  • Ditto.
• Ye know I cannot come up with one decent prediction about Microsoft. More of the same maybe?
  • Live Mesh impresses the socks off me.
• The BBC will brand the OLPC XO as the BBC Micro Model D and launch a major combined TV and internet education program around it
  • A little too bluesky for the BBC. Netbooks seem to have taken all the buzz here.
• Google will buy Bebo
  • Well they were bought but not by Google.
• One of the video 2.0 companies will be massive (Qik, Seesmic, Kyte, Ustream etc)
  • Whilst not massive, both Qik and Ustream seem to be doing very well.
• A dedicated generic Irish Social Network will be launched
  • Both IGOpeople and Locle went live so I got that right!
• Bandon and Old Chapel will get 12 Mbs broadband (that’s on the fantasy list)
  • We got 3 Mbs. Better than a poke in the eye I guess
• Old Chapel residents will get flat-rate unencumbered 3.5G on our phones (ditto)
  • Well I got 1GB for €8 from Voda last month so we’re heading in the right direction
• 2008 will provide tougher challenges but greater rewards to Irish entrepreneurs than 2007
  • Yes, absolutely.

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